An empirical analysis of climate transition: a global outlook of agriculture productivity

Purpose This study has empirically investigated the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity worldwide, considering the ranking of agriculture productivity. Additionally, the study has estimated the extent to which climate change favoured agriculture productivity from a global perspective. Design/methodology/approach The study prepared a suitable econometric model and employed the quantile panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique with a two-step Error Correction Mechanism to assess the influence of global warming on worldwide agrarian productivity. Findings The estimated results provide evidence for the nonlinear impacts of climate change on agriculture productivity across all quantiles. Moreover, threshold levels of average annual temperature rise with the improvement of agricultural productivity, depicting that low-productive areas are highly vulnerable to global warming. Additionally, agricultural inputs like labour, capital and irrigated land are positively related to agricultural productivity, with relatively substantial marginal productivity in highly productive regions. Nevertheless, technological innovations are found to be more productive in low-productive areas. Practical implications Policymakers should prioritize region-specific climate-smart agriculture by targeting policies to increase agricultural productivity and minimize the effects of climate change on food security and nutrition. Originality/value Despite significant research in this area, there remains a knowledge gap on the nature of this relationship, especially regarding productivity thresholds under warming. The study aims to fill this gap, offering valuable insights to guide policy actions and adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture productivity.