Monsoon Rainfall Forecasting by ANN Model in Ranchi, Jharkhand

In this research paper, ANN model is utilized to forecast the monsoon rainfall using the monthly rainfall of January, February, March, April and May. Three different ANN models are deployed based on different transfer function. It is observed that the accuracy level of forecasting is affected by the transfer function. The Accuracy of forecasting is evaluated using the rainfall data for three years viz. 2021 to 2023 and is observed that the better accuracy is provided by the ANN model with Scaled Conjugate Gradient transfer function. It is also observed that the correlation coefficient of the testing phase is more important than training and validation phase. SCG ANN model has the highest correlation coefficient in testing phase. SCG model has an accuracy level of 88.80% for monsoon rainfall forecasting.