Parental incarceration and offspring criminality: A Finnish total population study with sibling comparison

While parental incarceration (PI) is consistently associated with offspring offending, less is known about possible heterogeneity in the association. We examined associations between PI and offspring crime considering possible moderating factors related to parent's criminality and sociodemographic background. Using Finnish total population data of children born in 1987–2003 ( N = 1,017,072), we conducted Cox regression models for PI by age 18 and offspring's crime up to age 33. We compared full siblings to further test whether differences in the age and total length of exposure to PI were differentially associated with offending while accounting for unmeasured familial heterogeneity. Both paternal and maternal incarceration were associated with an elevated risk of offspring criminality, but there was significant heterogeneity in the associations. The associations were weaker among offspring of parents with more criminal history and stronger among offspring with longer co-residence with the parent. The associations were typically stronger for maternal as compared to paternal incarceration, and among girls compared to boys. No clear evidence for differential risks related to the age or total length of exposure to PI was found in the sibling analyses. PI is differently associated with offspring crime depending on the parent's criminal and sociodemographic background. • Significant heterogeneity in the associations between PI and offspring criminality was found. • The associations were typically weaker among offspring with more adversities. • The associations were typically stronger for maternal vs. paternal incarceration and among girls vs. boys. • No clear evidence for differential risks related to the age or total length of exposure to PI was found.