Exploitation of Waste Algal Biomass in Northern Italy: A Cost–Benefit Analysis

Aquaculture and waste valorization have the potential to show solid achievements toward food security and improvements in the circularity of resources, which are crucial aspects of achieving a sustainable lifestyle in agreeance with Agenda 2030 goals. This study aims to optimize and simplify the decision-making processes for the valorization of marine wastes (natural and from aquaculture) as secondary raw materials to produce high-value-added market goods. However, significant concentrations of pollutants may be present within wastes, compromising overall quality, and social dynamics can hinder their usage further. Goro’s lagoon was chosen as a case study, where the relations between the ecosystem services, a thriving bivalve economy, and social dynamics are deeply rooted and intertwined. Therefore, in the manuscript cost–benefit and foresight analyses are conducted to determine the best usage for algal biomass considering pollution, social acceptance, and profitability. These analyses are virtually conducted on bio-refineries that could be operating in the case study’s area: briefly, for a thirty-year running bio-plant, the CBA indicates the two best alternatives with an income of 5 billion euros (NPV, with a 5% discount rate) for a biofuel-only production facility, and a half for a multiproduct one, leading to the conclusion that the first is the best alternative. The foresight, instead, suggests a more cautious approach by considering external factors such as the environment and local inhabitants. Hence, the main innovation of this work consists of the decision-maker’s holistic enlightenment toward the complexities and the hidden threats bound to this kind of closed-loop efficiency-boosting process, which eventually leads to optimized decision-making processes.