Determination of the Main Production Factors and Production Predictions of Test Wells in the Offshore Tight Oil Reservoirs in the L Formation of the Beibu Basin Using Multivariate Statistical Methods

This study addresses the challenge of rapidly and accurately predicting the production of test wells in offshore tight oil reservoirs, specifically within the L Formation of the Beibu Basin. This challenge is particularly pronounced in situations where drill stem tests are limited and evaluating each untested well layer is difficult. To achieve this objective, we analyzed fifteen typical test wells in the L Formation, taking into account both geological and engineering factors. Initially, Pearson correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis, and grey relational analysis were used to identify the main production factors. Based on these analyses, two types of production prediction models were developed: one employing the comprehensive production index method and the other utilizing the production coefficient method. The research identified effective permeability, porosity, oil saturation, and shale content as the main production factors for the test wells in the study area. The model verification results showed that the comprehensive production index model performs effectively for the L Formation, with an average prediction error of 20.40% compared to the actual production values. This research is significant for optimizing and stabilizing production in tight oil reservoirs.