Exploiting temporal features in water resource carrying capacity assessment based on extended VIKOR

• A novel integrated model framework is proposed to evaluate WRCC . • It can grasp the dynamic changes and development trends of WRCC status. • It can identify the factors that affect the improvement of regional WRCC. • The results provide guidance for the formulation of regional sustainable development strategies. Investigation of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is very important to promote regional high-quality development. However, existing WRCC assessment models overlook the dynamic changes over time, limiting their practical application. This study constructs 15 evaluation index systems, and proposes a time-varying multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework for regional WRCC evaluation, incorporating an obstacle degree model to identify key hindrances. The applicability of the proposed framework is verified by using the Nine Cities of the Pearl River Delta (NCPD) as a typical research area. The findings indicate that: (1) The proposed framework expands the capabilities of existing methods and provides a potential method to grasp the dynamic changes and directions of results over time; (2) The distribution of WRCC in the research region exhibits a pattern of low in the central and high around; (3) Per capita water resources, total water supply, and ecological water use rate are key elements influencing WRCC improvement, with obstacle frequencies over 0.8. Additionally, when the decision-making mechanism coefficient v is [0.3,0.8], the highest status of Zhuahi's WRCC is guaranteed. This work gives a fresh perspective for grasping the temporal dynamic changes of regional WRCC and provides a scientific reference for decision makers to formulate relevant plans.