Towards sustainable last-mile logistics? Investigating the role of cooperation, regulation, and innovation in scenarios for 2035

Last-mile logistics is of crucial importance to city life, but negative externalities require a transition to more sustainable modes of operation. Enhancing the capacity for informed decision-making is key in this multi-actor context with interdependent stakeholder views shaped by long-term contextual dynamics. This paper presents six scenarios representing potential futures of last-mile logistics based on the views of 26 logistics stakeholders with various roles in last-mile logistics using a Disaggregative Policy Delphi approach. They offer insight into the interdependencies between stakeholders and key enablers and barriers in the transition. Results suggest that actions of local authorities strongly influence the level and direction of technological innovation and cooperation. This stresses the importance for local authorities to build the capacity required to play a meaningful role in the transition, for example, by facilitating ongoing dialogue that may help actors to navigate their different preferences and negative impacts on quality of urban public space, and to identify joint courses of action towards more sustainable last-mile logistics.