The Spatiotemporal Matching Relationship between Metro Networks and Urban Population from an Evolutionary Perspective: Passive Adaptation or Active Guidance?

With the operation of the first route in Xi’an City, the matching relationship between the metro networks and the urban population is a root factor affecting the utilization of rail transit facilities. The mismatch between the metro networks and the urban population has led to an imbalance between the supply and demand for rail transport, resulting in wasted urban infrastructure. Based on this issue, the research objective is to focus on the spatiotemporal variations of the matching relationship. Firstly, the topological network model abstractly extracted metro spatial distribution features, and the spatial autocorrelation model was adopted to identify the evolution characteristics of the metro networks and urban population. Secondly, this paper adopted a time-lagged regression model to demonstrate the action relationship from 2011 to 2021. Then, the compositive coordination index was utilized to assess the variation of the global matching relationship. Finally, the paper explored spatial heterogeneity through the coupling coherence degree attached to grid cells. The research results indicate that the Moran’s I value of metro elements decreased from 0.782 to 0.510 with the further complexity of topological networks, while the population was consistently high in spatial dependence with a Moran’s I value of around 0.75 during the decade. Based on the regression coefficients and significance, this paper verified the hypothesis that the metro networks and urban population had a positive time-lagged feedback effect in urban development. From 2011 to 2021, the compositive coordination index symbolizing the global matching relationship increased from 0.29 to 0.90, but the coupling coherence degree shows significant spatial heterogeneity in different grid units. Differentiated spatial planning strategies were proposed for varied areas to efficiently utilize rail transit, which may provide a reference for other cities with the same reality problem.