Future scenarios of the sector of insect as food and feed in Europe

Abstract The study aims to analyse through scenario analysis the future market opportunities for products derived from insects for food and feed (IFF) in Europe. The embryonic state of the IFF industry and the lack of sufficient and detailed quantitative information did not allow the adoption of more quantitative models. Compared to standard statistical forecasting techniques, scenario analysis allows for considering the impact of future exogenous shocks and significant structural changes in the system under investigation. Organisational learning is best performed collectively. Scenario analysis is a very relevant part of this process and can lead to better strategy and action planning. The scenario time horizon was fixed to 2035, while the spatial framework was the European Union. The analysis involved a selected group of experts and stakeholders of the IFF sector to provide a shared knowledge basis that was exploited to define eight different scenarios. Two of the eight resulting scenarios are favourable for the IFF sector, and two outline adverse outcomes for the industry. The remaining four scenarios refer to contrasting situations for the IFF sector. Some implications emerge for the future development of the IFF industry: the embryonic state of the IFF business in the EU makes it very vulnerable to shocks; the crucial role of policy and regulatory framework in the insect sector, together with the different degrees of societal concerns for sustainability may strongly affect the development of IFF. Relevant aspects that emerge in some scenarios are the cooperation and industrial ecosystems with open innovation and collective IPR protection; the importance of dedicated credit; improvement of the knowledge system, and the circular economy potential of IFF for treating waste, especially in the feed sector.