Modeling of Air Quality near Indian Informal Settlements Where Limited Local Monitoring Data Exist

The world is becoming increasingly urbanized, with migration rates often exceeding the infra-structural capacity in cities across the developing world. As such, many migrants must reside in informal settlements that lack civil and health protection infrastructure, including air quality monitoring. Here, geospatial inverse distance weighting and archived Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) air quality data for neighboring stations from 2018 to 2021 were used to estimate air conditions in five informal settlements in Delhi, India, spanning the 2020 pandemic lockdown. The results showed that WHO limits for PM2.5 and NO2 were exceeded regularly, although air quality improved during the pandemic. Air quality was always better during the monsoon season (44.3 ± 3.47 and 26.9 ± 2.35 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and NO2, respectively) and poorest in the post-monsoon season (180 ± 15.5 and 55.2 ± 3.59 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and NO2). Differences in air quality among settlements were explained by the proximity to major roads and places of open burning, with NO2 levels often being greater near roads and PM2.5 levels being elevated near places with open burning. Field monitoring was performed in 2023 at three settlements and local CPCB stations. Air quality at settlements and their closest station were not significantly different (p < 0.01). However, field data showed that on-site factors within settlements, such as cooking, ad hoc burning, or micro-scale industry, impact air quality on local scales, suggesting health risks are greater in informal settlements because of greater unregulated activity. City-scale models can estimate mean air quality concentrations at unmonitored locations, but caution is needed because such models can miss local exposures that may have the greatest impact on local health.