Mathematical model of liver cirrhosis formation during morphological and molecular-genetic preclinical studies

BACKGROUND: Currently, researchers describe challenges in developing new treatments for fibrosis and cirrhosis: poor quality of preclinical models, insufficient trial duration, and lack of markers of therapeutic response. A separate task is to standardize the process of liver cirrhosis formation in preclinical trials, which is necessary to obtain accurate quantitative estimates in a short timeframe. AIM: This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for the formation of liver cirrhosis during preclinical trials. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Liver fibrosis and cirrhosis were induced in male Wistar rats using freshly prepared thioacetamide solution for 17 weeks. The area of connective tissue was determined as a percentage of the image area. The area of interlobular veins was measured in µm2. The numbers of cells expressing the FAP marker and the α-SMA marker were counted. The level of mRNA expression of the Vegfa and Yap1 genes was assessed by real-time polymerase chain reaction. A mathematical model for classifying observations into stages was constructed using multiple logistic regression with stepwise selection of predictors, followed by calculation of sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve with a 95% confidence interval based on ROC analysis. RESULTS: As a result of the analysis, a mathematical model of liver cirrhosis formation was developed. The model is based on the values of two indicators: FAP+ cells and Yap1 mRNA and demonstrated good quality. The resulting value of the area under the ROC curve of 0.883 suggests good results for classifying cases. CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical model makes it possible to differentiate the stage of liver cirrhosis from the stage of fibrosis during preclinical studies. It provides a foundation for studying the pathogenesis of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis, identifying new potential molecular targets for antifibrotic therapy, and reducing the number of expensive, labor-intensive laboratory tests.