A Comparative Analysis of Target Scenarios for Municipal Waste Reduction in Croatia’s Leading Tourist Towns

In this study, we examined the correlation between the collected municipal waste (MW) and the tourism intensity (TI) in five of Croatia’s most popular tourist towns—Zagreb, Poreč, Rovinj, Split, and Dubrovnik—from 2015 to 2021. Furthermore, we conducted a comparative analysis of target scenarios for municipal waste reduction in these tourist towns based on population changes and the amount of separately collected and residual MW collected to achieve EU targets for processing MW for reuse and recycling. The TI indicator quantifies the population’s theoretical multiplication during tourist influx, providing a clear picture of the pressure exerted by tourism. Rovinj and Poreč have the highest TIs, while larger cities like Dubrovnik, Split, and Zagreb have lower average TI values. The correlation between the collected MW and the tourism intensity in Dubrovnik is very high and positive, in Zagreb and Rovinj it is high and negative, while Split has a higher positive correlation than Poreč. The results for the MW preparation rates for reuse and recycling from 2015 to 2021 and future projections for 2021–2035 suggest that, in five of Croatia’s leading tourist towns, the imperative must be to decrease residual MW, promote separation at the source, and separate MW collection to meet EU targets. Given the challenges of meeting all three—or even two or one—of the EU’s targets of 50% by 2025, 60% by 2030, and 65% by 2035, the current waste separation system must be improved. This study contributes to the scientific community by addressing the gap in the current knowledge on the effects of population changes caused by tourism on MW in tourist destinations. The findings could be relevant for practitioners and policymakers planning MW collection, processing, and recovery in tourism-oriented economies, particularly in Croatia’s top tourist destinations.