Assessing the effect of multispecies interactions on precautionary reference points using an ensemble modelling approach: A North Sea case study

The precautionary approach to fisheries management requires accounting of uncertainty to ensure stock sustainability. Most fisheries management is based on a single-species approach, with stocks assumed independent of one another, even though it is known that stocks interact through predation and competition for resources. The strength of these interactions depends on the relative abundance and size/age composition of stocks, but they are usually treated as fixed. Therefore, a key question is: can we simultaneously adopt the precautionary approach for multiple stocks while accounting for these interactions? Here we examine the impact of stock interactions on calculations of precautionary reference points for nine stocks in the North Sea. We combined four multispecies models using an ensemble model to rigorously quantify uncertainty and explore the rates of fishing mortality that leads to groups of stocks being fished according to the precautionary approach. We found that relaxing the assumption of stock independence meant that no fishing at all was only precautionary for six of nine stocks, and no fishing strategy was precautionary for all nine. We suggest that it is necessary to account for multispecies interactions when calculating precautionary reference points.