Measurement issues impede tech change impact estimates

Significance The TUC website “notes with caution” that a June 2024 Citigroup report speculates that “up to 54% of banking jobs and 48% of insurance roles could be displaced by AI.” Estimates of the impact of AI on employment vary widely. Impacts High costs associated with AI adoption could widen the performance gap between large established firms and smaller younger companies. AI will require at least as much workforce education and training and restructuring of production processes as ICT did. Job losses may be high in occupations highly exposed to AI; these workers may find it hard to retrain or end up in lower value-add jobs.