Climate action or delay: the dynamics of competing narratives in the UK political sphere and the influence of climate protest

It is often argued that political will is needed to make progress on responding to the climate crisis. Political will needs a narrative though, substantiating why political intervention is needed. This paper examines the dynamics of key competing climate policy narratives in the political sphere – normative, i.e. morally underpinned pro-climate action, denial and delay of climate action and other, mostly exclusively economic or technical arguments for climate action – using data of parliamentary debates in the UK between 2017 and 2022 and interviews with politicians and civil servants for complementary computational, time-series and qualitative analyses. We investigate the role played by major external events, focussing on pro-action climate protests, in shaping these competing dynamics, which ultimately underpin climate policy decisions. We find an increase in normative pro-climate arguments used in parliament in 2018/2019 during major climate protests, which become the dominant argument line. And while this increase slowed down during the COVID-19 pandemic, it nevertheless consolidated, reinvigorated by COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, which was also accompanied by resumed climate protests. Analysis suggests moreover that the normative pro-climate action and the denial/delay narratives are coupled. We also find considerable differences between the two major UK parties. The governing Conservatives are split between the pro-climate action and delay/denial camps, paralysing any policy progress, with latest dynamics suggesting delay arguments becoming more dominant. Labour, on the other hand, embraces the normative pro-climate action narrative, though even here delay arguments are occasionally employed. Our interviews with politicians and civil servants confirm our computational analysis that suggests there was a shift in 2018/2019 with an increase of normative pro-climate action narrative. They confirm that flagship UK climate policies, such as the net zero by 2050 legislation passed in June 2019 and Labour’s Green New Deal launch in March 2019, were aided by climate protests. Climate movements can affect a shift in climate policies through increasing political salience of climate change and changing the frames used to negotiate climate policies.Climate movements should take note of the competing denial/delay narrative, which is coupled with the normative pro-climate narrative and can paralyse progress in climate policy.While political parties on the left/centre-left, like Labour in the UK, are more amenable to the climate movement narrative, they are not entirely resistant to the denial/delay narrative.Politicians from centre-right who are amenable to the climate movement narrative face greater opposition inside their parties where denial/delay positions are relatively strong.Climate protest can successfully establish a political mandate for climate action, the next step must be to mobilize the public for radical climate policies that would require also lifestyle changes and to fight back backlash. Climate movements can affect a shift in climate policies through increasing political salience of climate change and changing the frames used to negotiate climate policies. Climate movements should take note of the competing denial/delay narrative, which is coupled with the normative pro-climate narrative and can paralyse progress in climate policy. While political parties on the left/centre-left, like Labour in the UK, are more amenable to the climate movement narrative, they are not entirely resistant to the denial/delay narrative. Politicians from centre-right who are amenable to the climate movement narrative face greater opposition inside their parties where denial/delay positions are relatively strong. Climate protest can successfully establish a political mandate for climate action, the next step must be to mobilize the public for radical climate policies that would require also lifestyle changes and to fight back backlash.