Simulation of Urban Carbon Sequestration Service Flows and the Sustainability of Service Supply and Demand

Simulating ecosystem carbon sequestration service (ECSS) flows is crucial for optimizing the carbon cycle in ecosystems and achieving sustainable balance between the supply and demand of the ECSS. This study integrates least-cost path analysis with Kriging interpolation to simulate the dominant wind direction and corrects the interpolated wind speeds to account for terrain and surface conditions. Carbon emissions are spatially distributed using points of interest and road network data. Ultimately, by traversing the carbon emission rate grids along wind directions, the ECSS flows are simulated. The results reveal that the study area has a small carbon sink area but a high total carbon emission, leading to a situation where the supply of ECSS is insufficient to meet demand. The ECSS flows, based on the simulated wind field, demonstrate high spatial resolution and highlight the service flow corridors with distinct spatial heterogeneity. The study area has a significant carbon surplus, requiring a forest area ten times larger than the study area itself to fully sequester this carbon. These findings provide valuable insights for urban sustainable development and carbon emission reduction strategies.