The Use of Fuzzy Modelling Based on Expert Knowledge to Determine Poland’s Energy Security Index Taking into Account Political Conditions

This article presents the results of research on the energy security index in Poland. Since the development of renewable energy sources forced by the transformation of the national energy system will require an increased supply of rare earth elements, the level of demand for these metals was taken into account when determining the energy security index. Furthermore, the development of renewable energy sources in Poland will directly depend on the volume of energy demand and, as the events of previous years have shown, on political and legal conditions, especially in the case of wind energy. Since some of these factors are qualitative, it was impossible to use a quantitative method. Therefore, fuzzy sets were used. Fuzzy modelling is based on expert knowledge. Using this method, the authors created three alternative scenarios for the development of Poland’s energy security index: pessimistic, optimistic, and the most probable.