Study of climate variability in a subhumid region (case of Guelma) and an arid region (case of Ouargla) in Algeria

Climate variations are a major environmental issue dominating our time and a challenge facing environmental monitoring agencies. As part of the development of this work concerning the study and comparison of climatic fluctuations of an arid region (Ouargla) and a subhumid region (Guelma), we proceeded, after having grouped the climatic data (temperature, precipitation and humidity), to calculate heat and aridity indicators for an approximate period of thirty (30) years. Forecasts using the “Weka” software showed climate variation but at variable rates. During the calibration phase of the aridity index, the best results were recorded for the two regions by the Random Committee model with a coefficient of determination R2 = 0.9998 and performance indicators EMA=0.031, RRSE=1.4703, RAE=1.4599, RMSE=0.0653et MSE=0.0043 for Ouargla and R2 =0.9999, EMA=0.2379, RRSE=1.5779, RAE=1.2909, RMSE=0.4338 et MSE=0.1882 fot Guelma. Over the course of the forecast period, there is stability in the heat index. For the aridity index, an increase in Ouargla and a slight decrease in Guelma.