Multi-agent system simulation and centralized optimal model for groundwater management considering evaluating the economic and environmental effects of varied policy instruments implemented

ABSTRACT Modeling interconnectedness of people (social) and nature (ecological) can offer valuable understanding about the dynamics in the midst of social and environmental processes. Within this paper, a novel framework based on Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS) is introduced that use python-based codes coupling NETLOGO agent-based model platform with a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model that uses SWAT watershed model by considering the uncertainty associated with farmers' productivity. Then the various policy instruments implemented in the MASS (free-access and consistent tax and quota on groundwater utilization) are compared with the Centralized Optimal Model (COM). In the COM streamflow constraints are imposed by a central planner with impeccable foresight that use MATLAB-based codes coupling the MATLAB with a calibrated groundwater model of MODFLOW that uses SWAT watershed model. This comparison that is one of the most important goals of this paper is based on their environmental and economic impacts. The environmental and economic impacts are measured using two main indicators: the violation of streamflow (VSF) and the average annual benefit (AAB). The results indicate that simulation with agents that are more realist, heterogeneous, shortsighted, and self-interested agents (MASS) perform poorly under consistently applied policies in comparison with COM.