Citrus Production Losses in Florida Due to Hurricane Ian: Estimates from the Forecast-Production Gap

This paper estimates citrus production losses in Florida due to Hurricane Ian (2022) at the county level using a forecast-production gap methodology that compares pre-hurricane forecasted production to post-hurricane actual production. Based on this approach, Hurricane Ian caused an estimated 41 percent loss in citrus production statewide. Multiplied by contemporary on-tree per-box values, these production losses represent over $118 million in lost crop production value, although this estimate is associated with considerable uncertainty and could exceed $200 million. County-level production loss estimates agree well with estimates previously developed using a rapid assessment method based on the Hurricane Composite Intensity Index, supporting the index as a useful tool in the aftermath of storms. The year-over-year statewide citrus production decline of 60 percent (inclusive of non-hurricane causes) in 2022-2023 is the second largest percentage drop in 130 years of assessed data, exceeded only by the Great Freeze of 1894-1895. As climate change drives hurricane intensification along the Florida coast, the state’s citrus industry will be increasingly vulnerable to massive losses.