Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble

Abstract The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process‐based projections of the ice‐sheet contribution to sea‐level rise over the twenty‐first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice‐flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high‐emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea‐level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea‐level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice‐shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea‐level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea‐level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi‐century projections.

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Publication Details

Journal
Earth s Future
Published
2024-09-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef004561
Citations
54
Primary Topic
Cryospheric studies and observations
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
20.32

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article

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble

Luke D. Trusel, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Frank Pattyn, Holly Kyeore Han et al.
54 citations
Earth s Future
Cryospheric studies and observations
20.32
article

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble

Luke D. Trusel, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Frank Pattyn, Holly Kyeore Han, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tyler Pelle, Erika Simon, Sophie Nowicki, Jorge Bernales, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Violaine Coulon, A. J. Payne, Daniel P. Lowry, Torsten Albrecht, Justine Caillet, Christophe Dumas, Richard Cullather, Benoît Urruty, Ann Kristin Klose, Helene L. Seroussi, Heiko Goelzer, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas Zwinger, Chen Zhao, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Constantijn J. Berends, Ralf Greve, Yu Wang, Julius Garbe, Pierre Mathiot, David Chandler, Rupert Gladstone, Gunter Leguy, Jean-Baptiste Barré, Sainan Sun, Ronja Reese, Nicholas R. Golledge, Matthew J. Hoffman, Marisa Montoya, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Alexander Robinson, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, William H. Lipscomb, Javier Blasco, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Jorge Álvarez-Solas, Petra M. Langebroek, Xylar Asay‐Davis, Mathieu Morlighem, Philippe Huybrechts, Leopekka Saraste, Jake P. Twarog
article en
54 citations

Abstract

Abstract The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process‐based projections of the ice‐sheet contribution to sea‐level rise over the twenty‐first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice‐flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high‐emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea‐level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea‐level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice‐shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea‐level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea‐level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi‐century projections.

Earth s FutureVol. 12(9)
Dartmouth College (US), NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US), GNS Science (NZ), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (ES), Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Tasmania (AU), Goddard Space Flight Center (US), Pennsylvania State University (US), Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE), Australian Antarctic Division (AU), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (US), Los Alamos National Laboratory (US), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES), University of Liverpool (GB), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US), University of Potsdam (DE), Utrecht University (NL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), University of California, Irvine (US), Hokkaido University (JP), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO), Leibniz Association (DE), Northumbria University (GB), University of California San Diego (US), Victoria University of Wellington (NZ), Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR), NORCE Research AS (NO), Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (FR), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR), CEA Paris-Saclay (FR), NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (US), Irvine University (US), CSC - IT Center for Science (Finland) (FI), Instituto de Geociencias (ES), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE), University at Buffalo, State University of New York (US), The University of Tokyo (JP), UiT The Arctic University of Norway (NO), Université Grenoble Alpes (FR), University of Lapland (FI)
Sight Research UK, Earth Sciences Division, Natural Environment Research Council
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Cryospheric studies and observations
20.32
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