Searching for tidal orbital decay in hot Jupiters

ABSTRACT We study transits of several ‘hot Jupiter’ systems, including WASP-12 b, WASP-43 b, WASP-103 b, HAT-P-23 b, KELT-16 b, WD 1856+534 b, and WTS-2 b, with the goal of detecting tidal orbital decay and extending the baselines of transit times. We find no evidence of orbital decay in any of the observed systems except for that of the extensively studied WASP-12 b. Although the orbit of WASP-12 b is unequivocally decaying, we find no evidence for acceleration of said orbital decay, with measured $\ddot{P} = (-7 \pm 8) \times 10^{-14} \, \rm s^{-1}$, against the expected acceleration decay of $\ddot{P} \approx -10^{-23} \, \rm s^{-1}$. In the case of WD 1856+534 b, there is a tentative detection of orbital growth with $\dot{P} = (5.0 \pm 1.5) \times 10^{-10}$. While statistically significant, we err on the side of caution and wait for longer follow-up observations to consider the measured $\dot{P}$ real. For most systems, we provide a 95 per cent confidence lower limit on the tidal quality factor, $Q_\star ^{\prime }$. The possibility of detecting orbital decay in hot Jupiters via long-term radial velocity (RV) measurements is also explored. We find that ${\sim} 1 \rm \, m \, s^{-1}$ precision in RVs will be required to detect orbital decay of WASP-12 b with only 3 yr of observations. Currently available RV measurements and precision are unable to detect orbital decay in any of the systems studied here.