A Study on the Impact of China’s Prefabricated Building Policy on the Carbon Reduction Benefits of China’s Construction Industry Based on a Difference-in-Differences Method

The construction industry is a significant contributor to carbon emissions in China. To effectively meet the “dual carbon” targets, several provincial regions within the country started to implement policies promoting prefabricated buildings. This study examines data from 18 provinces in China over the period from 2012 to 2021, treating the introduction of prefabricated building policies as a quasi-natural experiment. Utilizing the difference-in-differences methodology, this research assesses the impact of these policies on the carbon emission performance of China’s construction sector and evaluates the robustness of the findings. The results indicate that the prefabricated building policies positively influenced the carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry. Specifically, these policies enhance carbon emission efficiency by increasing labor productivity, optimizing the allocation of mechanical resources, and improving the utilization rate of building materials. Additionally, the effectiveness of these policies is positively correlated with the level of regional technological innovation, environmental protection efforts, and the advancement of energy structure optimization. The study concludes with several policy recommendations aimed at further enhancing the effectiveness of prefabricated building policies.