SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF SHALE GAS RESERVOIR PARAMETERS BASED ON PROXY MODEL

The complexity and vast variability of shale gas reservoirs demand a profound comprehension of the intricate interplay between various parameters and their influence on reservoir performance. This study aims to provide such an understanding by conducting a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of shale gas reservoir parameters. The core of this analysis lies in leveraging proxy models, which serve as efficient surrogates of complex numerical models. These proxy models enable us to assess the sensitivity of different parameters without the need for extensive computational resources. By employing such models, we can identify the key parameters that have a significant impact on reservoir behavior. The methodology involves several crucial steps. Firstly, a shale gas numerical model is established to capture the geological and engineering characteristics of the reservoirs. This model serves as a foundation for subsequent analysis. Secondly, proxy models are constructed based on the numerical model, offering a simplified representation while maintaining the essential dynamics. The application of sensitivity analysis techniques, such as Sobol analysis and Morris analysis, follows. Sobol analysis quantifies the relative importance of each parameter, providing insights into their individual contribution to reservoir performance. On the other hand, Morris analysis examines the non-linear and interactive effects of parameters, revealing their combined influence. The anticipated outcomes of this study are far-reaching. Firstly, it will provide valuable insights into the sensitivity of different parameters, enabling decision-makers to prioritize their attention and resources. Secondly, it will facilitate the optimization of shale gas development strategies, leading to more efficient and cost-effective operations. Finally, this study has the potential to guide future research and developments in the shale gas industry, contributing to its sustainable growth and development.