A Harmony-Based Approach for the Evaluation and Regulation of Water Security in the Yellow River Water-Receiving Area of Henan Province

Water security, as a crucial component of national security, plays a significant role in maintaining regional stability and ensuring the healthy and rapid development of the economy and society. The Yellow River water-receiving area of Henan Province (YRWAR-HN) is selected as the research area in this study. Firstly, a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed based on the actual water security problems of the research area, and the single index quantification–multiple indices syntheses–poly-criteria integration method (SMI-P) is introduced to quantify the water security degree of 14 cities in the YRWAR-HN from 2010 to 2021. Then, the obstacle degree model is used to identify the key obstacle indexes that restrict the improvement of water security. Finally, the harmonious behavior set optimization method is adopted to carry out the regulation of water security, and the improvement path of water security in the YRWAR-HN is formulated. The results indicate the following: (1) the water security degree of the YRWAR-HN shows a fluctuating upward trend, increasing from 0.4348 (2010) to 0.6766 (2021), a significant rise of 55.61%. The water security level improves from the relatively unsafe level to the relatively safe level. Hebi City exhibits the fastest rate of water security improvement, while Xinxiang City shows the slowest rate. (2) The density of the river network (X1) and the proportion of investment in water conservancy and environmental protection in the total investment (X15) are the two indexes with the highest obstacle degree, with the average obstacle degrees being 15.09% and 10.79%, respectively. (3) The combination of the composite regulation scenario and improvement Path 2 is the optimal regulation strategy for water security in the YRWAR-HN. From the implementation process, Luoyang, Sanmenxia, Jiyuan, Xuchang, and Shangqiu may prioritize improving their flood and drought disaster defense capabilities and emergency response capabilities, continuously enhancing the flood prevention and disaster reduction system. Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, Xinxiang, Jiaozuo, Anyang, Hebi, Pingdingshan, and Zhoukou may prioritize resolving the regional water supply and demand conflicts, balancing development and conservation, actively seeking transboundary and external water transfers, and strengthening the capacity for water conservation and intensive utilization. Puyang City may prioritize enhancing its comprehensive water environment management capabilities, increasing investment in water conservancy and the environment, improving production processes, reducing pollutant emissions, and mitigating agricultural non-point source pollution.