Stopgap or sustainable strategy? The impact of China’s green credit guidelines policy on corporate ESG performance

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of China’s Green Credit Guidelines (GCG) policy on the environmental, social and governance (ESG) scores of restricted enterprises and examine firm’s speculative behavior in response to the policy. Design/methodology/approach This paper views the GCG policy proposed in 2012 as a quasinatural experiment and uses difference-in-differences (DID) model to evaluate its influence on the ESG scores of Chinese nonfinancial A-share listed enterprises from 2007 to 2019. Robustness tests include the propensity score matching (PSM)–DID method and permutation tests. Findings The GCG policy significantly increases the ESG scores of restricted enterprises, particularly enhancing environmental (E) performance. However, it only improves the social (S) and governance (G) performance of firms heavily reliant on bank credit, indicating speculative behavior by enterprises. Increased Government attention, a higher proportion of female executives and more developed local green finance reduce speculative behavior, while executives with financial backgrounds promote it. Practical implications Governments should mandate standardized ESG reporting and monitor restricted enterprises, banks should monitor speculative behavior and firms should integrate ESG into their long-term strategies to support sustainable development. Social implications The results provide evidence of the effectiveness of implementing the GCG policy in China and offer guidance for better promoting green credit policy in developing countries, contributing to the transition toward a more sustainable future. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to explore if the GCG policy’s asymmetric effects on ESG components are due to enterprise speculative behavior and examines the factors influencing this behavior, providing insights for regulators to better implement the GCG policy to promote sustainable development.