Prognostic prediction signature and molecular subtype for liver cancer: A CTC/CTM‑related gene prediction model and independent external validation

Liver cancer is the second leading cause of tumor-related death worldwide, and a serious threat to lives and health. Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) facilitate the progression of various cancers, including liver cancer. The relationship between CTC/circulating tumor microemboli-related genes (CRGs) and the prognosis of liver cancer is unclear. The aim of the present study was to identify CTC/circulating tumour microemboli-related genes (CRGs) in hepatocellular carcinoma and to investigate their clinical significance. Transcriptomic data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and GSE117623 databases were combined, and differentially expressed CRGs were identified. These were subsequently analyzed via least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and multivariate Cox analyses, and a five-gene risk signature was constructed. The signature was validated in the ICGC and GSE14520 dataset with survival analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Immunocyte infiltration, tumor mutation burden (TMB), tumor immune dysfunction and exclusion (TIDE), and the somatic mutation rate were also compared between high- and low-risk groups, based on the median predictive index, to further evaluate the immunotherapeutic value of the model. Molecular subtypes of liver cancer were characterized by the non-negative matrix factorization method and potential therapeutic compounds were evaluated for different subtypes. Nomograms were utilized to predict the prognosis of patients, and the signature was compared with previous literature models. Additionally, the biological function of one of the CRGs, tumor protein p53 inducible protein 3 (TP53I3), in liver cancer was further explored through <i>in vitro</i> experiments. Analysis of the prognostic characteristics of the five CRGs led to the identification of two liver cancer subtypes. Patients in the low-risk group had a longer survival compared with those in the high-risk group, and patients in the latter group were associated with a higher TMB, immunocyte infiltration and somatic mutation rate, and lower TIDE scores. The prognostic profile was validated in the ICGC and GSE14520 datasets and exhibited a good predictive performance. <i>In vitro</i> analysis showed that the knockdown of TP53I3 suppressed liver cancer cell proliferation. In summary, CRGs were used to develop a new prognostic signature to predict the prognosis of patients with liver cancer. This signature may be used to assess the prognosis of patients and may provide new insights for clinical management strategies. In addition, TP53I3 is potentially a therapeutic target for liver cancer.