Blending census and paleolimnological data allows for tracking the establishment and growth of a major gannet colony over several centuries

Seabird colonies with long-term monitoring records, i.e., > 50 years, are rare. The population data for northern gannets (Morus bassanus) in Cape St. Mary's (CSM) Ecological Reserve (Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada) is robust, extending back to 1883 when the colony was presumed established. We inferred the colony's historical population shifts by measuring ornithogenic proxies in a dated sediment record collected from a nearby pond. Our record extended to the early eighteenth century, but the proxy data only began to show significant signs of seabird presence between ca. 1832 and 1910, aligning with the period gannets were first observed at CSM. Through the twentieth century, we observed significant increases in δ¹⁵N, P, Zn, Cd, and chlorophyll a, coeval with a shift in the dominant diatom species, indicating rapid colony growth. The proxies were overall highest in ca. 2005, corresponding to the reported historical maximum of the gannet colony in 2009. Our results validate that paleo-reconstructions using ornithogenic proxies can accurately reflect population trends and provide a stronger understanding of the colony's establishment and growth. This study highlights the value of applying paleolimnological methods in seabird population studies to frame the history of a colony's dynamics and inform conservation efforts.