Rapid Fatality Estimates after Earthquakes in Western Mediterranean Countries for First Response

ABSTRACT The quality and speed of the current earthquake fatality estimates in Italy, Greece, Spain, Morocco, and Algeria by Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation (QLARM) is analyzed. The positive conclusion is that all investigated major earthquake disasters have been recognized as red alerts. In all but one of the tests, the range of estimated fatalities bracketed the number of finally reported fatalities. In five out of nine test earthquakes, the range of likely fatalities was calculated in real time, that is, within minutes after the respective earthquakes. These earthquakes occurred during the last 20 yr and only the minimal information of point sources was available. Additional four tests were performed for fatal earthquakes that occurred in the twentieth century and for which magnitudes and extents of the ruptures are known. The negative conclusions are: (1) locations and properties of critical facilities, such as hospitals and schools are still not made available by some governments, although in the case of earthquake disasters, first responders should be informed about their conditions. (2) News media and governments still do not pay attention to the quantitative estimates of fatalities 26 min (median) after earthquakes by QLARM and instead disseminate underestimates by up to two orders of magnitude for days and weeks. (3) The directions and extents of ruptures remain unknown for days and weeks, leading to poor information on the spatial distribution of victims at first. (4) Source locations by different worldwide and local agencies differ by several to 20 km, which can lead to misestimates of fatalities up to 20,000. If rapid earthquake locations of quality were available in earthquake prone areas, such errors could be avoided, and the time to estimate numbers of fatalities could be reduced by an order of magnitude.