Rallying around the leader in times of crises: The opposing effects of perceived threat and anxiety

Abstract In times of crisis, citizens tend to increase their approval of the government and its leader which can shift the balance of power. This ‘rally effect’ is a persistent empirical regularity; however, the literature is still undecided on its underlying causal mechanisms. We argue that crises induce threat and anxiety and hypothesize that perceived threat increases approval of the incumbent leader, whereas anxiety decreases it. By analysing German panel data from the COVID-19 pandemic, we causally identify both mechanisms and provide systematic evidence supporting this theory. Moreover, we increase the scope of our theory and show that both mechanisms are also at work when citizens approve cabinet members who manage key portfolios. Our findings have highly important implications for our understanding of the rally effect and crises politics in democracies.

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Publication Details

Journal
European Journal of Political Research
Published
2024-09-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12717
Citations
5
Primary Topic
Cultural Differences and Values
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.22

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article

Rallying around the leader in times of crises: The opposing effects of perceived threat and anxiety

Thomas Gschwend, Klara Müller, Sebastian Juhl, Roni Lehrer et al.
5 citations
European Journal of Political Research
Cultural Differences and Values
3.22
article

Rallying around the leader in times of crises: The opposing effects of perceived threat and anxiety

Thomas Gschwend, Klara Müller, Sebastian Juhl, Roni Lehrer, Oke Bahnsen, Marcel Neunhoeffer
article en
5 citations

Abstract

Abstract In times of crisis, citizens tend to increase their approval of the government and its leader which can shift the balance of power. This ‘rally effect’ is a persistent empirical regularity; however, the literature is still undecided on its underlying causal mechanisms. We argue that crises induce threat and anxiety and hypothesize that perceived threat increases approval of the incumbent leader, whereas anxiety decreases it. By analysing German panel data from the COVID-19 pandemic, we causally identify both mechanisms and provide systematic evidence supporting this theory. Moreover, we increase the scope of our theory and show that both mechanisms are also at work when citizens approve cabinet members who manage key portfolios. Our findings have highly important implications for our understanding of the rally effect and crises politics in democracies.

European Journal of Political ResearchVol. 64(2)
Technische Hochschule Mannheim (DE), Goethe University Frankfurt (DE), University of Mannheim (DE), Truman State University (US), Institut für Arbeitsmarkt und Berufsforschung (DE), Systems, Applications & Products in Data Processing (Germany) (DE), Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (DE), University of Missouri (US), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE)
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales
Openalex Percentile: Top 8%
Cultural Differences and Values
3.22
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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