Simulation and prediction of land subsidence in Decheng District under the constraint of InSAR deformation information

Land subsidence, marked by a decline in surface elevation, poses a significant threat to urban infrastructure and safety. Accurate subsidence information and a reliable prediction model are crucial for prevention and control. In this study, we used persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PS-InSAR) technology to obtain long-term land subsidence data and analyzed subsidence characteristics in Decheng District. By integrating hydrogeological and groundwater data, we developed a three-dimensional groundwater flow and one-dimensional compaction model through numerical simulation. Furthermore, the subsidence data monitored by PS-InSAR were used to further constrain and validate the model. The evolution trend of land subsidence under different groundwater exploitation scenarios was predicted and analyzed. The results showed that from May 2017 to December 2021, the cumulative maximum subsidence in Decheng District reached −173 mm. The subsidence area is mainly concentrated in the northern area, and its subsidence center is near Qiaoyuan Town. According to the Land Subsidence Prevention and Control Plan of Dezhou City, Shandong Province (2018–2025), we set up different groundwater mining scenarios with the goal that the rate of land subsidence in the key prevention and control area is less than 35 mm/yr in 2025.The Fluid-solid coupled model prediction analysis results indicated that a 30% reduction in groundwater exploitation is reasonable.