How does energy transition improve energy utilization efficiency? A case study of <scp>China</scp> 's coal‐to‐gas program

Abstract Improving energy efficiency by adjusting the structure of energy consumption types is of great significance for reducing carbon emissions in the short term. The present paper constructs new data envelopment analysis models for evaluating energy utilization under different structural conditions and calculating potential emissions reductions. We conducted empirical research on 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2019—a time frame that coincides with the instituting of China's “coal‐to‐gas” program. Our results show that technological progress is the main way for China to reduce carbon emissions and that it is possible to reduce the total amount of carbon emissions by 35%. Additionally, optimizing the energy consumption structure following the coal‐to‐gas program guidelines could reduce the country's carbon emissions by a further 25%. Finally, this paper provides specific policy recommendations based on the efficiency analysis results to guide each province in reducing carbon emissions under the conditions of energy demand growth.