Optimizing biomass supply chains: A probabilistic approach to managing uncertainties in southwest Nigeria

Efficient and sustainable use of biomass resources is crucial to meet the increasing demand for bio-based products and renewable energy. The biomass supply chain, which includes harvesting, collecting, logistics, storage, and pre-treatment, faces challenges due to uncertainties such as market fluctuations, equipment availability, weather conditions, and transportation constraints. These uncertainties often hinder the optimisation of the supply chain. This research work explores the performance of the biomass supply chain by optimising operations while accounting for these uncertainties. Nigeria is faced with power issues and there are resources to combat the problem through generation of cleaner energy from biomass. Using mathematical modelling, the study evaluates the impact of uncertainty on key performance areas like feedstock supply, inventory management, transportation efficiency, and processing capacity. The research demonstrates the importance of incorporating uncertainty-aware solutions to minimise risks and improve the flexibility of the biomass supply chain. Sensitivity analyses and case studies shows that the proposed probabilistic modelling approach provides valuable insights into system vulnerabilities and effective strategies for optimising operations under uncertain conditions. The findings highlight the potential of this approach to improve decision making, resource allocation, and promote sustainable practices in the biomass sector. Ultimately, the study contributes to advancing biomass supply chain management, paving the way for a more resilient and efficient use of bioresources.