Spatiotemporal trajectory of energy efficiency in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and implications on the route of economic transformation

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has attracted attention for its extraordinary pace of economic development and is considered to be leading the way in China's transformation from a manufacturing to an innovation cluster. However, due to rapid economic expansion and rapid urbanization, the Great Bay Area still struggles with low energy efficiency and environmental degradation, which has slowed down the pace of development. Therefore, in order to alleviate energy pressure, promote the country's sustainable development and gain a competitive advantage in the global market, researching energy efficiency and improving energy utilization efficiency is crucial. In this study, macro-level energy efficiency indicators are constructed using energy consumption data from various cities in the Greater Bay Area for the period from 2000 to 2020, and the spatio-temporal evolution of energy efficiency is analysed. The results show that all cities in the Greater Bay Area experienced an increasing trend in energy efficiency from 2000 to 2019, with significant variation in growth rates and magnitudes between cities. Compared to the nine cities in Guangdong province, Hong Kong and Macao exhibited significantly superior energy efficiency, with Foshan recording the highest growth rate of 14%. In 2020, most cities experienced a decline in energy efficiency due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with Macao experiencing the greatest decrease at 57%. Hong Kong and Macao are both in the "low consumption and high efficiency" target region, while Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhuhai are consistently in the "both high" region. Changes in the industrial upgrading index correspond significantly with changes in energy efficiency trajectories, with the transition from primary to secondary and tertiary industries playing a more substantial role. There is no significant association found between the strength of environmental regulation and changes in energy efficiency. The study's findings indicate that the most effective way to achieve economic transformation in the majority of China's regions is to combine adequate environmental legislation with industrial structural adjustment.