Praemonitus praemunitus: can we forecast and prepare for future viral disease outbreaks?

Understanding the origins of past and present viral epidemics is critical in preparing for future outbreaks. Many viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, have led to significant consequences not only due to their virulence, but also because we were unprepared for their emergence. We need to learn from large amounts of data accumulated from well-studied, past pandemics and employ modern informatics and therapeutic development technologies to forecast future pandemics and help minimize their potential impacts. While acknowledging the complexity and difficulties associated with establishing reliable outbreak predictions, herein we provide a perspective on the regions of the world that are most likely to be impacted by future outbreaks. We specifically focus on viruses with epidemic potential, namely SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, DENV, ZIKV, MAYV, LASV, noroviruses, influenza, Nipah virus, hantaviruses, Oropouche virus, MARV, and Ebola virus, which all require attention from both the public and scientific community to avoid societal catastrophes like COVID-19. Based on our literature review, data analysis, and outbreak simulations, we posit that these future viral epidemics are unavoidable, but that their societal impacts can be minimized by strategic investment into basic virology research, epidemiological studies of neglected viral diseases, and antiviral drug discovery.

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Publication Details

Journal
UNC Libraries
Published
2024-09-02
DOI
https://doi.org/10.17615/f59f-gm50
Primary Topic
Infant Health and Development
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Praemonitus praemunitus: can we forecast and prepare for future viral disease outbreaks?

Ralph Steven Baric, Akash Kothari, Zoe L. Sessions, Alexander Tropsha et al.
UNC Libraries
Infant Health and Development
article

Praemonitus praemunitus: can we forecast and prepare for future viral disease outbreaks?

Ralph Steven Baric, Akash Kothari, Zoe L. Sessions, Alexander Tropsha, Tesia Bobrowski, Martin H.-J, Moorman N.J, Muratov E.N, Beasley J.O.-M.T, Li M, Alves V.M, Sakallioglu I.T, Timothy W. Phares
article en

Abstract

Understanding the origins of past and present viral epidemics is critical in preparing for future outbreaks. Many viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, have led to significant consequences not only due to their virulence, but also because we were unprepared for their emergence. We need to learn from large amounts of data accumulated from well-studied, past pandemics and employ modern informatics and therapeutic development technologies to forecast future pandemics and help minimize their potential impacts. While acknowledging the complexity and difficulties associated with establishing reliable outbreak predictions, herein we provide a perspective on the regions of the world that are most likely to be impacted by future outbreaks. We specifically focus on viruses with epidemic potential, namely SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, DENV, ZIKV, MAYV, LASV, noroviruses, influenza, Nipah virus, hantaviruses, Oropouche virus, MARV, and Ebola virus, which all require attention from both the public and scientific community to avoid societal catastrophes like COVID-19. Based on our literature review, data analysis, and outbreak simulations, we posit that these future viral epidemics are unavoidable, but that their societal impacts can be minimized by strategic investment into basic virology research, epidemiological studies of neglected viral diseases, and antiviral drug discovery.

UNC Libraries
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
American Foundation for Pharmaceutical Education, National Institutes of Health
Openalex Percentile: Top 74%
Infant Health and Development
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