The Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemicon China’s High-Level Tourist Attractions:Evidence from Jiangsu Province

Based on the data from high-level scenic spots in Jiangsu Province in 2020 after the outbreak of the epidemic, this paper uses the geographic space method to display the temporal and spatial change process of the number of tourists in scenic spots during COVID-19, and establishes a multivariate lag nonlinear regression model to empirically study the mechanism of changes in the number of tourists in tourist attractions during the epidemic.The results show that: (1) Except for the restrictions such as closing the park, after the outbreak of COVID-19, the number of tourists in the scenic spots has recovered, and the recovery speed of different types of scenic spots is different.Tourists in cultural scenic spots and modern amusements are recovering slowly, and they are less resilient due to the impact of the epidemic.(2) The situation of the COVID-19 epidemic and related public opinions have an impact on the number of tourists in the scenic spot.The degree of impact from large to small is the number of newly diagnosed domestically, the public opinion index of COVID-19, the number of newly imported overseas, and the number of newly diagnosed overseas.From the perspective of time, the number of newly diagnosed domestic and foreign epidemics has a significant inhibitory effect on the number of tourists in the scenic spot before June 2020, and the impact is not obvious after June, while the number of newly imported overseas cases and the epidemic public opinion index have a significant longterm negative effect on the number of tourists in the scenic spot (3) The time lag days for the impact of COVID-19 on the number of tourists in scenic spots are usually 1-2 days, and as the event progresses, the time lag is extended to 3-4 days, reflecting that tourists are less sensitive to COVID-19.Events such as holidays and other events can also dramatically alter the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.(4) The differentiation, volatility, and lag of the impact of COVID-19 on tourist attractions stem from the impact of the epidemic on tourists' travel motivation.In the repeated epidemic environment, tourists' travel is affected by the distance between the epidemic site and the tourist location, and tourists are epidemic in order to avoid the danger caused by lag.