Simultaneous Causality and the Spatial Dynamics of Violent Crimes as a Factor in and Response to Police Patrolling

Simultaneous causality occurs when two variables mutually influence each other, creating empirical contexts where cause and effect are not clearly unidirectional. Crime and policing often appear in urban studies presenting the following characteristic: sometimes, increased police patrols can reduce criminal activities, and other times, higher crime rates can prompt law enforcement administrations to increase patrols in affected areas. This study aims to explore the relationships between patrol dynamics and crime locations using spatial regression to support public policies. We identify spatial patterns and the potential impact of crime on policing and vice versa. Data on crimes and patrol locations were collected from the database provided by the Planning and Management Secretariat and the Social Defense Secretariat of Pernambuco, Brazil. The study employed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) to create a spatial simultaneous regression model for integrated security zones within the Brazilian geography. This approach provides a holistic visualization, enhancing our understanding and predictive capabilities regarding the intricate relationship between police presence and crime. The results report a significant relationship, with crime locations explaining police patrols (varying in geographic domain and type of crime). No statistically significant results from most geographic locations point to the inverse relation. The quantitative analysis segregated by typology presents a potential for effective public decision support by identifying the categories that most influence the patrol security time.