Insecurity will rise across Jordan’s border with Syria

Significance Jordan faces new security challenges including arms and drug smuggling from Syria, while threats from Iranian-aligned militia groups put the kingdom in the crossfire of larger regional conflicts. Domestically, popular opposition to the Gaza war has imposed considerable pressure on the government. Underlying economic frustrations exacerbate political resentment. Impacts Jordan will increase expenditure on its armed forces and domestic policing as security issues become increasingly important. The government will promote shallow democratic reforms to offset an economically aggrieved citizenry. The kingdom will seek new sources of foreign aid, arguing that its collapse would further threaten regional stability. Dissent and opposition will continue, given Jordan’s vibrant civil society's propensity to mobilise despite intense repression.