The Impact of Property Tax Expectations on Household Asset Allocation

Rational asset allocation is central to household wealth accumulation. This paper employs data derived from the 2019 China Household Finance Survey to methodically examine the influence of property tax expectations on the asset allocation decisions of households. This study finds that the expectation of property tax positively influences both the probability of holding risky financial assets and their proportion of household assets. The percentage of housing assets constitutes a substantial negative moderating factor affecting the relationship between property tax expectation and household investments in risky financial assets. The positive effect of property tax expectations is more significant in eastern China. A definite expectation of property tax causes a precautionary saving effect among households. This study highlights that forming reasonable expectations about property taxes can help households adjust their investment portfolios in advance, diversify their asset allocation, and mitigate the impact of changes in property tax policies.