Predictions of Carbon Stock in the Southern Moscow Region Forests Under Different Forest Use Scenarios

The results of forest simulation modelling of the dynamics of carbon pools and fluxes in forest ecosystems under different forest management scenarios were considered on the example of the Dankovsky forest enterprise (south of the Moscow region, subzone of coniferous-broadleaved mixed forests). The impact of such changes in forest management practices, as the reserve regime, the reduction in the proportion of forest lands as a result of residential development, and zoning of the territory with an emphasis on increasing the recreational use of forests on the carbon balance was analysed. In computational experiments, a set of Russian models was used: the dynamic model of a forest stand FORRUS-S, the model of soil organic matter dynamics Romul_Hum, the model of the hydrothermal regime of soils SCLISS. Calculations were performed for a time period of 100 years at the forestry unit level, and were also aggregated at the level of the entire forestry district. The diversity of types of forest growth conditions (FGC), together with the species diversity and the initial different ages of stands, determined significant variations of the calculated indicators of forest stands’ production, the quantity and quality of plant litter entering the soil. For all cases, model estimates of changes in carbon reserves occurred in the forest stands within the initial 40–60 years with a subsequent decrease in the calculated values. Under the conservation scenario, an increase in the organic substances reserves in forest litter and soil was observed: for FGCs C2 and C3, an increase over 100 years was approximately 5–10 kg m–2, for the remaining FGCs — at the level of 2–3 kg m–2 in terms of carbon. Under the economic use scenarios, a relative “levelling” of forest enterprise area towards the lower end of the spectrum was shown in terms of soil carbon reserves. The maximum ecosystem carbon stock was calculated for FGC C2 and C3, the minimum — for A5 and C4. Depending on the scenario, over 100 years, the total net sequestration of carbon by the forests of the Dankovsky forest enterprise (with a total area of forested land of 6836 ha) was estimated within the range of 0.15–0.57 Tg.