Case study of high waves in the South Pacific generated by Tropical Cyclone Harold in 2020

This study highlighted a high wave case by severe tropical cyclone Harold and conducted a simulation with a newly developed wave forecasting system for the South Pacific based on the Japan Meteorological Agency third generation wave model (JMA MRI-III) using the National Centre for Environment Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) winds. Harold was a very intense tropical cyclone (TC) and very high waves up to 10 meters affected parts of Vanuatu and Fiji. The model results were reasonable and verified against observations of orbital satellites and a wave buoy at Komave in Fiji. The statistical verifications were carefully analyzed. The Root Mean Squared Error (RSME), Scatter Index (SI), Bias and R2 are all showing very impressive results. The new wave forecasting system is the first high resolution operational model at Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), which covers the whole Fiji area. The system will provide guidance to FMS in preparing marine alerts and warning better and more confidence in providing the marine forecast accurately.