Can Artificial Intelligence Effectively Improve China’s Environmental Quality? A Study Based on the Perspective of Energy Conservation, Carbon Reduction, and Emission Reduction

The “technological dividends” brought by AI development provide a new model for the country to achieve green governance, enhance enterprises’ ability to manage pollutant emissions during production and operations, and create a new driving force for improving environmental quality. In this regard, this paper systematically examines the impact of AI on environmental quality in China by employing provincial panel data spanning from 2000 to 2020. Focusing on energy conservation, carbon reduction, and emissions mitigation, the analysis is conducted through the application of a two-way fixed-effects model and mediation effects model to explore both the effects and the mechanisms of AI’s influence on environmental quality. The findings indicate that the development and implementation of AI contribute positively to China’s efforts in energy conservation, carbon reduction, and emissions mitigation, ultimately leading to an enhancement in environmental quality. This conclusion remains valid after multiple robustness checks. Mechanism tests reveal that the optimization of regional energy structures, advancements in green technological innovation, and upgrades in industrial structures serve as crucial pathways through which AI facilitates energy conservation, carbon reduction, and emissions mitigation. Heterogeneity analysis uncovers a notable “path dependence” effect in China’s AI development; regions characterized by higher material capital investment, more advanced technological market development, and greater levels of marketization experience a relatively more pronounced impact of AI on the enhancement of environmental quality. This study offers direct references and practical insights for countries globally to foster AI development, enhance environmental quality, and advance high-quality economic growth amid the ongoing wave of digital and intelligent transformation.