Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Agricultural Soils Based on Multi-Receptor Modeling Combined with Monte Carlo Simulation

The spatial characteristics, pollution sources, and risks of soil heavy metals were analyzed on Hainan Island. The results showed that the heavily polluted points accounted for 0.56%, and the number of mildly and above polluted points accounted for 15.27%, respectively, which were mainly distributed in the northern part of the study area. The principal component analysis-absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) and the positive matrix factorization (PMF) revealed four sources of heavy metals: agricultural pollution sources for cadmium, (Cd), industrial and mining pollution sources for arsenic, (As), transportation pollution sources for zinc and lead (Zn and Pb), and natural pollution sources for chromium, nickel, and copper (Cr, Ni, and Cu). The human health risk assessment indicated that the average non-carcinogenic risk (HI) for both adults and children was within the safe threshold (<1), whereas Cr and Ni posed a carcinogenic risk (CR) to human health. In addition, the total non-carcinogenic risk (THI) indicated that heavy metals posed a potential non-carcinogenic risk to children, while the total carcinogenic risk (TCR) remained relatively high, mainly in the northern part of the study area. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation showed that the non-carcinogenic risk (HI) for all heavy metals was <1, but the total non-carcinogenic risk index (THI) for children was >1, indicating a potential health risk above the safe threshold. Meanwhile, nearly 100% and 99.94% of the TCR values exceeded 1 × 10^-4 for children and adults, indicating that Cr and Ni are priority heavy metals for control. The research results provide the necessary scientific basis for the prevention and control of heavy metals in agricultural soils.