Quantitative Analysis of Agricultural Programmes’ Effectiveness in Reducing Unemployment Rate in Nigeria

Unemployment remains a pressing issue in Nigeria, with a significant portion of its population unable to secure sustainable employment opportunities. In recent years, agricultural programmes have emerged as potential solutions to address the challenges of unemployment. This study explores the effectiveness of agricultural programmes in reducing unemployment rate in Nigeria. The agricultural sector in Nigeria holds immense potential for job creation, considering the country’s vast arable land, favourable climate, and agricultural resources. However, the sector has been underutilized and faced numerous challenges, leading to high unemployment rates. Agricultural programmes have garnered attention as they aim to revitalize the sector, promote sustainable farming practices, and create employment opportunities for the burgeoning youth population. Consequently, the paper examines the impact of key agricultural programmes such as the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS), Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS), Nigerian Incentive-Based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL), and FADAMA, introduced by successive Nigerian governments at various times in reducing the unemployment rate in the country. Some of these programme though new, are just a transmutation from older ones, with the operations remaining the same. These programmes have demonstrated positive impacts in several ways according to statistics; contributing to the diversification of the economy of Nigeria and reducing the country’s heavy reliance on oil revenue. The question is, how effective have these programmes been in reducing the unemployment rate? Therefore, the paper’s main objective was to analyse how successful these programmes have been in checking the problem. The study uses the Logit model to investigate the effectiveness of these key Agricultural programmes in curbing the unemployment rate in the country. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) were used in the analysis. The results reveal that, of the four prominent programmes introduced by the government based on participants employed, the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) had the likelihood or greater probability at reducing the unemployment rate in the country. The study, consequently, concludes that, subsequent programmes should be designed according to the operations and modus operandi of CACS and that other programmes should either be upgraded to CACS module or be scrapped since their impact on reducing unemployment is not felt.