Investigating the influence of uncertainty on office building energy simulation through occupant-centric control and thermal comfort integration

• This study investigated uncertainty in energy consumption for office buildings. • An EnergyPlus-based Monte Carlo approach was employed for simulation analysis. • Occupancy schedules were generated via the Markov chain method. • Setpoint schedules were determined by the predicted mean vote-based decision method. • Occupant numbers can significantly affect PMV-based zone setpoint determination. Buildings with occupant-centric control (OCC) systems can adjust heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) operations based on occupant status to minimize unnecessary energy use. However, because occupant behavior is stochastic rather than constant, and preferred setpoints can vary across occupant groups, this randomness significantly impacts energy use in buildings with OCC systems. This study used a stochastic simulation approach to model the uncertainty inherent in occupancy patterns and evaluate its impact on the energy consumption of an office building with OCC. In this case, the setpoint temperature was determined based on the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) method so that each zone could be controlled to the preferred temperature according to the occupant group. The results showed that the uncertainty of the annualized sum of electricity consumption for heating and cooling was 4.3 % and 1.8 %, respectively, with 95 % confidence intervals. Notably, a negative correlation was observed between the number of occupants and the uncertainty of energy consumption. Thus, as the uncertainty in the setpoint temperature increased during periods of low occupancy, the uncertainty in the energy consumption of the HVAC system also tended to increase. These insights underscore the significant influence of occupancy-related factors on building energy utilization.