New climate dis-economies: The political economy of energy transitions in fragile fossil fuel producers

A global energy transition from carbon-based fuels to renewable energy will have major political and economic ramifications around the world, especially for fragile fossil fuel-producing states, but these impacts are not yet well understood let alone prepared for. In many fragile fossil fuel-producing countries, an energy transition is not simply a transformation of the energy sector, but also a fundamental challenge to the political economy of the state and the way politics is practiced. This challenge is likely to be destabilizing, politically fraught, and perhaps even violent, yet the “new climate economy” literature does not fully consider the implications of what the loss of these revenues will mean, and the solutions offered do not speak to the realities of how these states operate. This article examines the different risks and opportunities of an energy transition for these states and outlines a research agenda to better understand and prepare for these outcomes.