Perceived ecosystem services differ substantially from calculated services using biophysical models

Ecosystem services are fundamental for the well-being of residents and are an important basis for making regional sustainable development decisions. Existing studies mainly capture ecosystem services perceived by residents through questionnaires, or quantify the provision of regional ecosystem services through economic evaluation and biophysical evaluation. However, the discrepancy between model calculations and residents' perceptions remains lacking. Rapidly urbanizing watersheds can serve as a prime example for exploring the differences in ecosystem service outcomes between the two perspectives. In this study, we quantified the potential supply of nine ecosystem services and residents' perceptions of these services in the Guanting Reservoir basin through biophysical modelling and questionnaire surveys. We then analyzed the discrepancies between the two perspectives through the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The results showed that among the vast majority of the population, half of the nine ecosystem services exhibited significant differences in comparisons between perceived values and model-calculated ones. The differences were more prominent for regulating and supporting services among urban residents, while for provisioning and cultural services among rural residents. These differences highlight the necessity to consider quantitative results from diverse perspectives as well as on the benefits of different groups of interest. In rapidly urbanizing watersheds, infrastructure should be reinforced in rural areas to enhance rural residents’ accessibility of ecosystem services. With regard to urban areas, particular attention should be directed towards changes in regulating and supporting services.