Long-Term Care Use Among Older Migrants in the Netherlands: What to Expect in the Next Decade?

The number of older adults in the Netherlands is growing rapidly, and an increasing share of them is foreign-born. This may have implications for long-term care (LTC) demand. This study provides insights into older migrants' current and future use of LTC provisions under the Dutch long-term care act (LTCA). We distinguish three types of LTC and six groups of older migrants and analyze register data of all foreign-born older adults. Descriptive statistics for the 2016-2022 period and logistic regression analyses show considerable heterogeneity regarding the LTC-services used and the origin of care users. Most notably, Moroccan and Turkish older adults are least likely to use residential care and more likely to use personal care budgets. By combining our models' results with population projections, we project that older migrants' use of home-based care and personal budgets will increase rapidly in the next decade. Migrants with western and Surinamese origin will most often use LTC. Although the demand for residential care will rise less markedly, residential care will remain most used by older migrants under the LTCA. The rising demand for home-based care calls for policy efforts accommodating flexibility, room for differences, and grounds for establishing trustworthy relationships between all involved actors.