Predictor effect of the Rapid Survey (LIRAa) and priority areas for Dengue surveillance in Maranhão, Brazil

Dengue fever is a serious public health problem in Brazil. However, there are still mechanisms involved in the dynamics of the disease that need to be better elucidated, especially in Maranhão. In this sense, the objective was to evaluate the predictive effect of LIRAa in relation to the incidence of dengue fever in Maranhão in 2022, and to identify priority municipalities for interventions through geospatial analysis. This is a scholastic study, carried out with data obtained from the Zoonosis Surveillance Units - UVZ of the municipalities, in the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). A simple linear regression with post-hoc analyses and the Local Moran Index (LISA) were performed. A positive effect of LIRAa on the incidence of dengue fever was observed (R2 = 0.0352; p = 0.0062). LISA indicated ten high-risk municipalities and six in a transition situation to high risk of dengue fever in the state. LIRAa has proven to be an efficient entomoepidemiological surveillance tool and the identification of priority areas for surveillance can help health authorities in developing specific strategies to contain future epidemics.