Exploring carbon storage and sequestration as affected by land use/land cover changes toward achieving sustainable development goals

Understanding the impact of changes in land use/land cover (LULC) on carbon sequestration (C seq ) and emission leads to achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). For this, Business-As-Usual (BAU) and Sustainable Development (SD) scenarios were examined in Azarshar city, Iran which is faced with urban intensification. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the carbon cycle and influences of various urban growth indicators are still unclear even under climate change, rapid urbanization, and ecological deterioration. In this research, total carbon storage (C ts ) and C seq were determined at four carbon pools i.e., aboveground carbon (AGC), belowground carbon (BGC), dead organic carbon (DeOC), and soil organic carbon (SOC). This research revealed a successful implementation of integrated CA-Markov and InVEST models in delineating LULC changes between 2013 and 2033. It was concluded that land resources management play a crucial role in decreasing C seq along with increasing carbon emission across the study area. The modelling results showed a significant shifting from barren and cropland to developed land uses. This research goes beyond providing supporting evidence that urban expansion is a key factor driving the aforementioned changes, but also illustrates the importance of remote sensing in ecological modelling, especially where information is sparse. • The LULC changes maps were successfully prepared for Azarshahr city using ENVI and TerrSet software. • Linking CA-Markov and InVEST models facilitate illustrating carbon storage and sequestration. • Carbon sequestration was determined for various pools i.e., AGC, BGC, DeOC and SOC due to LULC changes. • The ability of remote sensing in monitoring LULC changes is proved. • A clear difference and non-aligned trajectory were observed between BAU and SD scenarios.